Business Cycles and Growth

The research group Business Cycles and Growth combines regular forecasting with macroeconomic research and comprehensive policy advice. Bringing together theoretical expertise, empirical evidence, and institutional knowledge in macroeconomic affairs is key to our mission. Based on the ongoing diagnosis of macroeconomic developments we proactively identify relevant policy challenges, develop research-based solutions, and communicate the results in the form of consulting output and media contacts. Macroeconomic research activities aim at continuously improving our analytic toolbox and provides feedback to academia on the usefulness of empirical methods and theoretical models. 

We cooperate with partners all over the world, such as the European research networks EUROFRAME and AIECE. The Kieler Konjunkturgespräche (KKG) is our flagship conference on international business cycles and global economic affairs, where we present our research and discuss global macroeconomic issues with other forecasters, policymakers, and business leaders.  

Our comprehensive package of Kiel Economic Outlooks comprises quarterly reports on the world economy with a special focus in the Euro area and Germany (two-year horizon), complemented by semiannual medium-term projections for Germany (five-year horizon), including in-depth analyses and estimates of potential output. We contribute to the Joint Economic Forecast produced by Germany’s leading economic research institutes and to the federal government’s Tax Revenue Projections. Our work is fed into all major consensus polls, including the ECB survey of professional forecasters. 

As a part of applied economic research, economic forecasting combines theoretical reasoning with empirical research. Thinking ahead of the present based on sound economics and relevant data is our passion. Of course, no matter how hard economists try, the future remains inherently uncertain. As business cycle researchers we strive for detecting typical patterns in  that  macroeconomic trends and fluctuations that are the basis of our scientific work and the predictions we derive from it. Forecasting exercises are important for systematic economic decision making (both for governments and corporates) and by producing foresight they serve as an early warning system for unsustainable developments. 

Our research complements the forecasting activities both from a theoretical and an empirical perspective, using state-of-art time-series methods and developing new dynamic models suitable for the analysis of macroeconomic policy. Our models are used, e.g., to analyze business cycle fluctuations, macroeconomic policies, or the effect of trade liberalization.