Economic Outlook
Our most recent forecasts for Germany, the Euro Area and the World Economy as well as current commentary on economic and macroeconomic issues for various economic areas.
Upcoming Forecast:
September 3, 2026
Key Indicator
September 2026
Shaded: Kiel Institute forecast
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |
| Gross domestic product (GDP), volume | 0.2 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| Gross domestic product, deflator | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.9 |
| Consumer prices | 2.2 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.9 |
| Labor productivity (per hour worked) | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Employment (1000 persons) | 45,878 | 45,677 | 45,589 | 45,574 |
| Unemployment rate (percent) | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6.0 |
| in relation to nominal GDP (percent) | ||||
| Public sector net lending | -3.0 | -4.0 | -4.1 | -4.3 |
| Gross public debt | 62.7 | 64.2 | 66.0 | 68.5 |
| Current account balance | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.1 |
GDP, consumer prices, labor productivity: percentage change on previous year; unemployment rate: as defined by the Federal Employment Agency.
Source: Federal Statistical Office, Fachserie 18, Series 1.2; Federal Employment Agency, Monthly Bulletin; Federal Employment Agency, Employment Statistics; shaded: Kiel Institute forecast.
Key Indicator
September 2026
Shaded: Kiel Institute forecast
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |
| Gross domestic product (GDP), volume | 1.3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Consumer prices | 2.1 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.0 |
| Unemployment rate (percent) | 6.4 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 5.9 |
| in relation to nominal GDP | ||||
| Public sector net lending | -2.9 | -3.4 | -3.5 | -3.2 |
| Current account balance | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
GDP. consumer prices: percentage change on previous year. Source: Eurostat; Shaded: Kiel Institute forecast.
Key Indicator
September 2026
Shaded: Kiel Institute forecast.
Real GDP and consumer prices in selected countries and regions 2026–2028
| Bruttoinlandsprodukt | Verbraucherpreise | |||||
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | |
| United States | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 2.3 |
| Japan | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| Euro Area | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.0 |
| United Kingdom | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Advanced economies | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 2.2 |
| China | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Latin America | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 7.8 | 7.0 | 6.5 |
| India | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 4.2 |
| East Asia | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Russia | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 6.8 | 7.5 | 6.5 |
| Africa | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 12.1 | 10.2 | 10.2 |
| World economy | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 3.6 |
| Addenum: World trade volume | 5.2 | 3.7 | 3.4 | . | . | . |
| Oil price (US $/Barrel) | 85.8 | 76.3 | 72.7 | . | . | . |
| World economy, weighted according to GDP at 2025 market exchange rates | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 2.9 |
Weighted according to GDP at 2025 PPP rates. — East Asia: Emerging Asia excluding China and India. — Shaded: Kiel Institute forecast.
