The Ukraine Support Tariff: How Europe Can Support Ukraine and Weaken Russia

• A “Ukraine Support Tariff” on the remaining €57.2 billion in EU–Russia trade could generate €6–16 billion per year at moderate rates of 30–50% (partial equilibrium) and €3–11 billion (general equilibrium)—exceeding the €3 billion from frozen Russian asset interest income.
• General equilibrium simulations confirm that Europe has asymmetric leverage over Russia: Russia’s value added falls 3–4 times more than the EU’s, making the tariff sustainable as long-term leverage. Trade diversion to China is modest. Extreme tariff rates (300%+) are counterproductive, as long-run revenue falls to near zero.
• Economically, we analyse a combined import tariff and export-side levy on remaining EU–Russia trade. Institutionally, the import leg is more straightforward under EU trade law, while the export leg is less straightforward and would likely require a distinct legal route. That asymmetry matters for implementation, but not for the economic logic of the combined proposal.

Kiel Institute Experts