Guidelines for a European Economic Policy towards China

• In this paper, we (i) discuss the drivers of Chinese success in manufacturing; (ii) analyse the resulting challenges for the German and French economies: and (iii) present economic guidelines for economic policies to deal with China.

• Over the past two decades, China has emerged as the world’s leading industrial power, accounting for roughly one-third of global manufacturing value. Chinese industrial success was driven by a combination of supportive industrial and macroeconomic policies, but also by fierce domestic competition and economies of scale.

• European businesses face acute challenges due to growing competition at home and in export markets, declining demand from China, and increasing protectionism in the global economy. China now leads Europe in a number of cutting-edge technologies.

• Confronted with these challenges, we propose a precautionary strategy for Europe that maintains the benefits of openness, but does not naively hand over sensitive areas of the European economy to Chinese dominance. This applies most clearly to sectors closely linked to national security in the communication, technology, and defence space.

• In important sectors where Europe lags technologically (e.g., batteries), the best policy is a strategy that welcomes Chinese and other countries’ foreign direct investment in Europe, preferably linked to technology transfers and joint ventures. In sectors that have little strategic relevance and where Europe is not competitive, the best policy response is to let European buyers reap the benefits of low Chinese prices.

Kiel Institute Expert