Diverging Cycles, Distinct Constraints: The US, Europe and China

The macroeconomic outlook for the United States, Europe, and China is increasingly shaped by renewed inflation pressures, geopolitical shocks, technological change, and intensifying global competition. In the United States, the economic narrative has shifted from concerns about a weakening labour market to concerns about persistent inflation, even as employment remains resilient and investment linked to artificial intelligence continues to support demand. In Europe, growth has weakened but remains broadly stable, with the outlook shaped by the fading energy shock, higher defence spending, resilient labour markets, and the deeper challenge of restoring competitiveness in the face of China’s rise in advanced manufacturing. China’s economy remains uneven: AI-related exports and internationally competitive sectors are performing strongly, while domestic demand, household consumption, property activity, and credit demand remain softer. Recent rural banking consolidation also points to efforts to manage financial stability risks more quietly, while the broader structural challenge remains how to support innovation, resolve excess capacity, and allow weaker firms to exit more effectively. Overall, the outlook is one of resilience but also divergence: major economies are still growing, but each faces a different mix of inflation, productivity, financial stability, competitiveness, and policy trade-offs.

A joint policy note that accompanies the briefing will be subsequently released on NUS EAI website. It is jointly authored by the speakers of both briefings. 

Speakers

Europe/Asia Briefing:
Prof Alfred Schipke, Director, East Asian Institute (EAI), National University of Singapore
Prof Moritz Schularick, President, Kiel Institute for the World Economy 
Prof Huang Yiping, Dean, National School of Development, Peking University
Dr Guo Kai, Executive President, CF40 Institute and Non-Resident Senior Fellow, EAI

A second briefing with focus on Asia/US takes place on July 16/17, 2026 with Jason Furman, Aetna Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy, Harvard Kennedy School.

More information on both events can be found here.

Registration is required

Europe/Asia Briefing: https://nus-sg.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_krb7Q8VxRNem_6bS5Ih3FA 

This seminar is open to media coverage. To RSVP as media, please email katherine.toh@nus.edu.sg

This online policy briefing is hosted in collaboration with the East Asian Institute at the National University of Singapore, the National School of Development at Peking University, the Harvard Kennedy School, and the CF40 Institute.