World Economy Winter 2025: Continued Headwinds Restrain Expansion

Global output growth slowed down only slightly and proved resilient amid trade conflicts and the resulting increase in uncertainty. World trade has even risen sharply. Both trade and investment continue to be buoyed by the boom in AI-related technologies. Monetary policy in the United States is expected to be eased further, while in the euro area policy rates are likely to remain at their current level for the time being. At the same time, fiscal policy will be expansionary on aggregate—driven in part by substantial increases in defense spending in many countries in response to the altered geopolitical environment.

However, the dampening effects of US tariff policy are likely to become increasingly apparent, especially since US tariffs can be expected to remain permanently high. Against this backdrop, we expect the global economic expansion to gradually slow down further over the coming months, as growth in the United States and the euro area is likely to temporarily weaken and the business outlook in China has recently deteriorated.

Given the robust developments so far we have nevertheless revised our forecast for global output – measured on the basis of purchasing power parities – markedly upwards compared with our autumn forecast, by 0.3 percentage points each for both this year and next, to 3.3 percent and 3.1 percent respectively. For 2027 we now expect global growth to accelerate to 3.2 percent. The decline in inflation came to a halt in 2025; in the United States, prices have even increased more strongly due to tariffs, and there remains a risk that monetary policy will eventually have to tighten in response.

Kiel Institute Experts