Journal Article
Sovereign Debt Restructurings: Preemptive or Post-default
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International Finance
Innovation and Structural Change
Growth
Globalization
Fiscal Policy & National Budgets
Financial Markets
European Union & Euro
Emerging Markets & Developing Countries
Economic & Financial Crises
Sovereign debt restructurings can be implemented preemptively—prior to a payment default. We code a comprehensive new data set and find that preemptive restructurings (i) are frequent (38% of all deals 1978–2010), (ii) have lower haircuts, (iii) are quicker to negotiate, and (iv) see lower output losses. To rationalize these stylized facts, we build a quantitative sovereign debt model that incorporates preemptive and post-default renegotiations. The model improves the fit with the data and explains the sovereign's optimal choice: preemptive restructurings occur when default risk is high ex ante, while defaults occur after unexpected bad shocks. Empirical evidence supports these predictions.
