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Working Paper

Peer Effects in Macroeconomic Expectations

Authors

  • Dräger
  • L.
  • Gründler
  • K.
  • Potrafke
  • N.

Publication Date

JEL Classification

E31 E71 D84

Key Words

Inflation expectations

belief formation

peer effects

survey experiment

economic expert

Social interactions affect individual behavior in a variety of ways, but their effects on expectation formation are less well understood. We design a large-scale global survey experiment among renowned experts working in 135 countries to study whether peer effects impact expectations about the macroeconomy. The global setting allows us to exploit rich cross-national variation in macroeconomic fundamentals. Our experiment uncovers sizable effects of peers and shows that peer information also shifts monetary policy recommendations of experts. The results have important implications for the design of policies and models of information acquisition.

Kiel Institute Expert

  • Prof. Dr. Lena Dräger
    Research Director

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