No evidence of first-mover advantage in a large sample of penalty shootouts

Authors

• Pipke
• D.

Publication Date

DOI

10.1016/j.joep.2025.102816

JEL Classification

Key Words

Conflicting evidence exists regarding a first-mover advantage in soccer shootouts, where increased pressure on second-moving teams may lead to choking. While some studies support this claim, others refute it, with the lack of consensus likely due to limited sample sizes. An analysis of around 7,000 soccer penalty shootouts and 74,000 kicks finds no evidence of a first- or second-mover advantage in winning probability. Equivalence testing further rejects any deviation greater than 1.8 percentage points from a 50% win probability for first-kicking teams. A parallel analysis of ice hockey shootouts finds no significant advantage or disadvantage for either the first- or secondmoving team.

Kiel Institute Expert