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Working Paper

From Transition Crises to Macroeconomic Stability? Lessons from a Crises Early Warning System for Eastern European and CIS Countries

Kiel Working Papers, 1269

Authors

  • Kittelmann
  • K.
  • Schweickert
  • R.
  • Vinhas de Souza
  • L.
  • Tirpak
  • M.

Publication Date

JEL Classification

F47 P20 C22

Key Words

Central and Eastern Europe

CIS

Currency Crisis

early warning system

EU

Markov switching

Mittel- und Osteuropa

Währungskrise

This paper uses a Markov regime-switching model to assess the vulnerability of a series of Central and Eastern European countries (i.e. Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovak Republic) and two CIS countries (i.e., Russia and Ukraine) during the period 1993-2004.

Kiel Institute Expert

  • Dr. Rainer Schweickert
    Kiel Institute Researcher

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