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Policy Article

Estimating potential output and the output gap – An analysis of the EU approach and suggestions for improvement (in German)

Authors

  • Ademmer
  • M.
  • Boysen-Hogrefe
  • J.
  • Carstensen
  • K.
  • Hauber
  • P.
  • Jannsen
  • N.
  • Kooths
  • S.
  • Rossian
  • T.
  • Stolzenburg
  • U.

Publication Date

Key Words

European Commission

fiscal policy

Konjunktur

Output gap

potential output

Related Topics

Fiscal Policy & National Budgets

European Union & Euro

Economic & Financial Crises

Business Cycle

Germany

Europe

Measures of potential output and the output gap are of great importance for policy-makers who need to assess the cyclical position of the economy and its productive capacity. They play an essential role in the European Stability and Growth Pact and in the debt cap of the German constitution. This study analyzes the measures of potential output and the output gap derived from the European Commission’s estimation approach and suggests methodological improvements.

Kiel Institute Experts

  • Prof. Dr. Jens Boysen-Hogrefe
    Kiel Institute Researcher
  • Dr. Nils Jannsen
    Kiel Institute Researcher
  • Prof. Dr. Stefan Kooths
    Research Director

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