Challenging the Baltic States’ Trade Relations with Russia: Caught in Path Dependencies? (original publication German only)

In the course of the lingering Ukraine crisis, Russia retaliated against the EU sanctions imposed on selected Russian enterprises and representatives by boycotting import goods from European and North American suppliers. Russian politicians further threatened to restrict the export of raw materials, especially natural gas, provided that the EU-Russia relations further worsen and sanctions gather momen¬tum. Against this backdrop, the paper deals with the question to what extent the EU economies  Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are vulnerable to Russian reprisals and whether they would expe¬rience comparatively high costs of the EU sanction policy. The focus of the analysis is on the Baltic States’ trade relations with Russia because these countries were integrated in the Soviet division of labor before regaining independence and might be more vulnerable to political blackmail due to path dependencies.

Kiel Institute Expert