Skip to main navigation Skip to main content Skip to page footer
WWT3 Sitepackage WWT3 Sitepackage

Working Paper

Anchoring Households’ Inflation Expectations When Inflation is High

CESifo Working Paper

Authors

  • Nghiem
  • G.
  • Dräger
  • L.
  • Dalloul
  • A.

Publication Date

DOI

10.2139/ssrn.4788241

JEL Classification

E520 E310 D840

Key Words

anchoring of inflation expectations

central bank communication

survey experiment

randomized controlled trial (RCT)

This paper explores communication strategies for anchoring households’ medium-term inflation expectations in a high inflation environment. We conducted a survey experiment with a representative sample of 4,000 German households at the height of the recent inflation surge in early 2023, with information treatments including a qualitative statement by the ECB president and quantitative information about the ECB’s inflation target or projected inflation. Inflation projections are most effective, but combining information about the target with a qualitative statement also significantly improves anchoring. The treatment effects are particularly pronounced among respondents with high financial literacy and high trust in the central bank.

Kiel Institute Expert

  • Prof. Dr. Lena Dräger
    Research Director

More Publications

Subject Dossiers

  • Production site fully automatic with robot arms

    © xieyuliang – iStockphoto

    Economic Outlook

  • Inside shoot of the cupola of the Reichstag, the building of the German Bundestag.

    © Erik Cleves Kristensen CC BY 2.0

    Economic Policy in Germany

  • Colorful flags of European countires in front of an official EU building.

    © European Union 2016, Source EP

    Tension within the European Union

Research Center

  • Macroeconomics

Cookie Extension Logo