A note on predicting recessions in the euro area using real M1

Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens

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Authors

Boysen-Hogrefe
J.

Publication Date

04/2012

JEL Classification

C53 E37 E41

Key Words

Euro area

Euroraum

narrow money

Predicting recessions

Probit

real M1

Real M1 is a renowned leading indicator used to forecast real economic activity. This note provides evidence that real M1 is also a suitable recession indicator that gave a clear and early signal for the Great Recession as long as changes in money demand are controlled for.

Kiel Institute Expert

Prof. Dr. Jens Boysen-Hogrefe

Kiel Institute Researcher

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Subject Dossiers

Research Center

Macroeconomics

A note on predicting recessions in the euro area using real M1

Authors

Publication Date

JEL Classification

Key Words

Kiel Institute Expert

More Publications

Scientific literature on carbon dioxide removal revealed as much larger through AI-enhanced systematic mapping

What if? The macroeconomic and distributional effects for Germany of a stop of energy imports from Russia

Inter-firm cooperation and innovation – insights from Nigeria

Global policy responses to antimicrobial resistance, 2021–22: a systematic governance analysis of 161 countries and territories

Subject Dossiers

Africa

China

Climate and Energy

Research Center

Macroeconomics

Social Media

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