US economic policy: no radical shift expected

“The big winners are American democracy and the rule of law, and that is also positive from an economic standpoint because the checks and balances are working. In terms of budget policy, not much will change in the short term. It is possible that deficits will rise if some of the Democrats’ spending plans gain majority support.

In trade policy and policy toward China, Donald Trump’s room to maneuver will narrow somewhat, but a radical shift is not to be expected. This is because, in foreign policy, the US president continues to hold the reins. He imposes tariffs not by law, but by executive order, bypassing Congress.

However, there is likely to be more pressure on Trump from within his own party to bring gas prices back to normal levels by finding a solution to the war in Iran. The outcome is certainly positive for Ukraine as well, because it will become more difficult for Trump to ignore Congress’s directives.”