The debt toll

... Their work fed into a broader set of estimates by Sebastian Horn and Christoph Trebesch of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy and Carmen Reinhart of Harvard University, who in May became the World Bank's chief economist.

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Just because China says it will lend money, does not mean the entire sum is paid at once (or ever). But even when Mr Horn, Ms Reinhart and Mr Trebesch look at the bank's figures on commitments, rather than incurred debt, they find some loans missing, suggesting incomplete data. ...

Kiel Institute Experts