Measuring Expected Inflation and the Ex-Ante Real Interest Rate in the Euro Area Using Structural Vector Autoregressions

In this paper, the structural vector autoregression methodology is used to decompose the euro area nominal short-term interest rate into an expected inflation and an ex-ante real interest rate component. The latter may be a useful indicator of the monetary policy stance of the ECB. To this end, a vector autoregression model comprised of the differenced interest rate series and the stationary component of the real interest rate is estimated and shocks to expected inflation and the ex-ante real rate are identified using the long-run restriction that only shocks to expected inflation have long-run effects on the nominal interest rate.