Analysis of Trumpism: Europe must become a strategic superpower—wait and see is not an option

According to the report, Trump's unpredictability is not only due to his personality but has also structural causes. So-called Trumpism is not a consistent ideology, but an unstable power alliance of various movements—from Christian nationalism and great power chauvinism to technocratic oligarchic thinking. This coalition only stays together through authoritarian leadership and mobilization against (imagined) enemies—and thus inevitably produces erratic policies.

Read the report now: Quo vadis, USA?

Economically, Trumpism creates multiple problems. Trump's protectionist agenda is inefficient and in some cases deliberately destructive. His reckless tariff and debt policy is jeopardizing the global role of the US dollar as a reserve currency. The world currently needs the US capital market, while the US can use it to finance a high level of consumption. A withdrawal of global capital flows from the US would therefore not only damage the American economy but also destabilize the international financial system. The first signs of such a loss of confidence can already be seen.

"Trump's tariff threats against the EU, but also his 'One Big Beautiful Bill' are just the latest examples of such reckless policy measures. OBBB provides fiscal stimulus at the wrong time with bad distributional effects. The right response from Germany and, above all, Europe to this erraticism and uncertainty is not one of waiting around, but a proactive approach," says Rüdiger Bachmann, author of the report. Under the conditions of a world characterized by great power politics, Europe itself must become a strategic great power—militarily, economically, and culturally. Otherwise, there is a risk of losing political relevance in an increasingly multipolar world.

While the first steps towards strengthening the military have been taken, an ambitious innovation and growth agenda is missing. According to the Kiel Report, Europe is moving in the wrong direction in terms of educational and cultural influence: instead of attempting to attract global talent, isolationist tendencies and provincial thinking dominate—for example in higher education and tax policy.

The analysis paints a worrying picture of the transatlantic future: the USA under Trump's second presidency will further weaken multilateral institutions and no longer see Europe as a partner, but as a rival. Nostalgic transatlanticism is therefore no longer a viable option.

"A Europe made up of many Switzerlands is not viable," says Bachmann, referring to Europe's fragmentation. Only a united, creative Europe will be able to stand up towards the rising authoritarian powers in the world. Europe's political existence is at stake.