Ongoing Conflict and Refugees' Resilience to Return – Panu Poutvaara

Speaker

Panu Poutvaara (ifo Institut)

Abstract

Throughout history, conflicts have led to significant migration waves. In 2022, around eight million Ukrainians fled or were forcibly displaced outside Ukraine. Using Gallup World Poll and new panel data on Ukrainian refugees in Europe, we investigate whether Russia's full-scale attack could demographically undermine Ukraine. Our findings are contrary to what traditional migration theories and previous literature predict. Ukrainians became 25 percentage points less likely to desire to permanently emigrate in 2022 compared to 2021. Furthermore, less than 10% of Ukrainian refugees plan to settle abroad. This share does not depend on time spent abroad, and only increases with fierce conflict in one’s home region. Ukrainians' resilience can be explained by their increased confidence in the government and military, boosted optimism, and stronger national identity.

Authors

Joop Adema (ifo Institute) – Cevat Giray Aksoy (King’s College London) – Yvonne Giesing (ifo Institute) – Panu Poutvaara (ifo Institute)

Room

Lecture Hall (A-032)