Journal Article
The role of expectations for currency crisis dynamics—The case of the Turkish lira
Journal of Forecasting, 42:625–642
Autoren
Erscheinungsdatum
DOI
Schlagworte
Internationale Finanzen
Finanzmärkte
Wirtschafts- & Finanzkrisen
This paper examines whether and how expectations have contributed to the turbulent path of the Turkish lira since 2008. We derive uncertainty measures
surrounding gross domestic product (GDP) growth, inflation, the interest rate, and exchange rates based on survey data from Consensus Economics. Our
results illustrate that forecasts have affected realized exchange rates and stock market returns via increased uncertainty. We also show that expectations
regarding monetary policy have changed throughout the sample period. In line with, a gradual adjustment of expectations professionals have accounted for
the violation of the Taylor rule.
