A Scenario Tool for Sustainability Transformation in Fisheries and Beyond

The urgency to find sustainable management solutions intensifies with increasing natural resource scarcity. Resource sectors are usually characterized by diverse resource users. We developed a structured scenario tool designed to quantitatively assess policy options for achieving sustainability, accounting for ecological, economic and institutional boundaries. Parameterized with stakeholders' input, the tool is exemplified for the German Western Baltic fishery, a sector under pressure from collapsing fish stocks and often regarded as “time machine.” It fits the structure of many resource sectors with different user types, often few large and many small-scale users. We evaluate two ecological scenarios in combination with four governance approaches against the economic viability of different fishery types. Under low biological productivity, the current quota allocation is not economically viable for most fishery types, highlighting how environmental crises lead to human crises. While large-scale fisheries stay unsustainable in the Western Baltic, a quota redistribution could pave the way for viable small-scale fisheries. The tool illustrates interrelations between boundaries to support evidence-based policy-making for sustainability transformations in fisheries, but also for allocations of land use, emissions or water rights. It also illustrates the role of firms' cost structures for economic viability when ecological boundaries require reduced natural resource use and how institutional settings can support a sustainable natural resource sector.

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