16 – 17 Oct
2023
107th International Business Cycle Forum
Macro Policies in Turbulent Times
Preliminary program
October 16, 2023 (Day 1):
12:00-13:00 Arrival
13:00 to 13:15
Welcoming Address
María Erla Marelsdóttir, Ambassador of Iceland in Berlin
13:15 to 13:30
Opening Remarks
Stefan Kooths, Director, Business Cycles and Growth, Kiel Institute
Macro policies I: Lessons for Monetary and Financial Stability
13:30 to 13:50
Keynote I
Már Guðmundsson, Former Governor of the Central Bank of Iceland
13:50 to 14:10
Keynote II
Karolina Ekholm, Director-General at the Swedish National Debt Office
14:10 to 15:00
Panel debate
Már Guðmundsson, Karolina Ekholm, Stefan Kooths
_______ Coffee Break 45 min _______
15:45 to 16:30
Global Economic Outlook
Minna Kuusisto, Director, Global Macro and Emerging Markets, Danske Bank
16:30 to 17:10
USA: Economic Outlook
Adolfo Laurenti, Principal European Economist, VISA, London
__________Break 20 Min ___________
17:30 to 18:10
China: Economic Outlook
Maria Laura Lanzeni, formerly Deutsche Bank
18:10 to 18:50
UK: Economic Outlook
Stephen Millard, Deputy Director, NIESR, London
_______ Dinner Buffet _______
October 17, 2023 (Day 2):
Macro policies II: The Future of the European Fiscal Framework
09:00 to 09:40
Keynote I
Massimo Suardi, Director for Macroeconomic Policies in DG ECFIN
09:40 to 10:15
Keynote II
Lars Feld, Director, Walter Eucken Institut, Freiburg
10:15 to 11:15
Panel debate
Massimo Suardi, Lars Feld, Niels Thygesen, Chairman of the European Fiscal Board
_______ Coffee Break 25 min _______
11:40 to 12:20
France: Economic Outlook
Charles-Henri Colombier, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis, Rexecode, Paris
12:20 to 13:00
Germany: Economic Outlook
Nils Jannsen, Kiel Institute for the World Economy
_______ Lunch Buffet _______
“Macro Policies in Turbulent Times” – #KKG107 takes a closer look at key issues in monetary and fiscal affairs. Macroeconomically, the recent years have been turbulent times indeed. Both the pandemic as well as the energy crisis brought about new challenges for monetary and fiscal authorities and called for far-reaching answers. The recent surge of consumer price inflation after an extended period very low interest rates a poses a particular challenge. Similarly, fiscal policy has played a major role in cushioning recent macroeconomic shocks. The European fiscal rules – contentious and disputed from the start – have been non-binding since 2020 in line with the “General Escape clause”.
In the meantime, the European Commission has initiated a debate on a reform of the fiscal surveillance framework and intends to restart it by 2024 provided that a consensus on a new set of fiscal rules is found. The 107th KKG discusses the state of play of the fiscal reform debate in Europe as well as current perspectives on monetary policy, in addition to the most recent economic outlook for the heavyweights of the world economy.
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