Subjective Perceptions and Migration Aspirations in Kenya, Morocco, Nigeria, Senegal, and Tunisia: 2020–2023

We examine how subjective perceptions shape migration aspirations in Kenya, Morocco, Nigeria, Senegal, and Tunisia. Combining Gallup World Poll survey data (2020–2023) with subnational indicators on economic activity, infrastructure, and conflict, we show that perceptions differ systematically by individual characteristics but are only weakly related to objective macro conditions. More positive perceptions are consistently associated with lower aspirations to migrate. Mediation analysis indicates that perceptions account for a meaningful share of the link between micro and macro-factors: 7–30% of the correlation between macro conditions and aspirations is mediated by perceptions, while micro effects are smaller. Our findings highlight the importance of subjective interpretations in migration decision-making and suggest that policies focusing solely on improving objective origin conditions may fall short if such improvements are not perceived by individuals.

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