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Arbeitspapier

Hidden Defaults

Autoren

  • Horn
  • S.
  • Reinhart
  • C.M.
  • Trebesch
  • C.

Erscheinungsdatum

JEL Classification

F21 F34 F42 F6 G15 H63 N25

Schlagworte

China

Neue Seidenstraße

Mehr zum Thema

Internationale Finanzen

Fiskalpolitik & Haushalt

Finanzmärkte

Wirtschafts- & Finanzkrisen

China

Asien

Afrika

China’s lending boom to developing countries is morphing into defaults and debt distress. Given the secrecy surrounding China’s loans, also the associated defaults remain “hidden”, as missed payments and restructuring details are not disclosed. We construct an encompassing dataset of sovereign debt restructurings with Chinese lenders and find that these credit events are surprisingly frequent, exceeding the number of sovereign bond or Paris Club restructurings. Chinese lenders follow a resolution approach reminiscent of 1980s Western lenders; they seldom provide deep debt relief with face value reduction. If history is any guide, multi-year debt workouts with serial restructurings lie in store.

Kiel Institut Expertinnen und Experten

  • Prof. Dr. Sebastian Horn
    Forschungsdirektor
  • Prof. Dr. Christoph Trebesch
    Forschungsdirektor

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