Journal Article
A note on predicting recessions in the euro area using real M1
Autoren
Erscheinungsdatum
JEL Classification
C53
E37
E41
Schlagworte
Real M1 is a renowned leading indicator used to forecast real economic activity. This note provides evidence that real M1 is also a suitable recession indicator that gave a clear and early signal for the Great Recession as long as changes in money demand are controlled for.
