Kiel Defence Economics Initiative
Armed conflict between states has re-emerged as a central risk to economic stability and international security. Governments are rapidly expanding defence budgets, reshaping procurement and industrial policy, and investing in dual-use technologies with both military and civilian applications. These developments have far-reaching implications for policy, innovation and industrial structure, and raise critical questions at the intersection of defence, macroeconomics, international finance, political economy, and industrial organization.
The Defence Economics Initiative promotes the production and dissemination of knowledge on how defence and war interact with economic structures and outcomes. We are building a global network of researchers and policymakers working on the economics of war, military spending, and security-related industrial policy. Among its key activities, the initiative hosts conferences, workshops, and online talks, and develops data products and policy briefs to support evidence-based decision-making.
Partner
Co-Directors
War, geopolitical risk, and the global economy
- Macroeconomic determinants and consequences of war between states
- The fiscal costs of war and geopolitical risk, including sovereign spreads and default risks
- Capital flows, safe-haven demand, and financial fragmentation
- Reconstruction after conflict
Macroeconomic and fiscal effects of military spending
- Defence R&D, spillovers, and diffusion into the civilian economy
- Crowding out versus crowding in (private investment, labor markets, and public capital)
- Debt dynamics, taxation, and inflationary pressures
- Competition policy, industrial concentration, and supplier ecosystems
Economic aspects of conflict and cooperation
- The economics of wars
- Sanctions
- Globalisation and conflict
- Alignments and alliance formation
National security
- Defence expenditures and arms trade
- Technological sovereignty and competition
- Energy and food security
- Securing raw materials and critical inputs
Data Resources
Price of War Calculator
Calculate the Economic repercussions of war based on historical evidence between 1870 and 2022.
